JFK Witness Deaths: 7 FBI officials due to testify at HSCA


JFK Witness Deaths: 7 FBI officials due to testify at HSCA

Richard Charnin
Oct.1, 2013

In 1977, seven top FBI officials due to testify at HSCA died in a 6 month period, five from heart attacks, one from an accidental gunshot and one from an accidental fall. This subset of 7 convenient deaths from over 100 is powerful proof of a conspiracy beyond any doubt, since it is focused on a specific group within a very short time interval. The HSCA did not mention any of these deaths in its claim that the London Sunday Times actuary’s 100,000 trillion to one odds of 18 material witness deaths in three years was invalid.

The HSCA statistician testified that it was invalid because the witness universe was unknown. But there were approximately 800 witnesses called to testify in four investigations from 1964-78: Warren Commission, Garrison/Shaw trial, Church Senate Intelligence hearings and HSCA.

Of the 800 witnesses called, at least 61 died, 37 unnaturally (26 were homicides). In this analysis we will take a closer look at 7 top FBI officials who were due to testify at HSCA but died within a 6-month period in 1977.

7706 LOUIS NICHOLS Former #3, responsible for JFK investigation; heart attack
7706 REGIS KENNEDY Oswald handler, confiscated home movies of assassination; heart attack
7708 JAMES CADIGAN Document expert; died from a fall in his home
7708 ALAN BELMONT Liaison to Warren Commission; natural causes
7710 J.M. ENGLISH Head of Forensic Sciences Laboratory; heart attack
7710 DONALD KAYLOR Fingerprint chemist; tied to bogus Oswald “print” on rifle; heart attack
7711 WILLIAM SULLIVAN Headed Division 5 (Counter-espionage/ intelligence); Gunshot accident

As shown in prior analysis, the relevance of witnesses called to testify is obvious, but their individual connections to the assassination is a moot point. The paradigm shift in approaching the problem is the recognition that motive and rationale for the elimination of witnesses is not a factor in the analysis. The mathematical calculation does not include a motive variable; the only relevant factors are 1) HOW MANY were called, 2) HOW MANY died, 3) the CAUSE of death (i.e. mortality rates) and 4) the TIME interval.

In this analysis we do not know how many FBI officials were called, but we do know how many died (7), the cause of death (heart attacks, accidents) and the time interval (6 months).

Since we do not know the number of FBI called, we will make assumptions by using a sensitivity analysis of 8,20,30,and 100 deaths. In addition we will look at several combinations of causes of death, assuming a) the official cause (5 heart attacks, 2 accidents); b) 4 homicides and 3 heart attacks; c) 7 homicides. The official cause of death may not be the true cause; heart attacks can be induced.

In order to calculate the probability of seven deaths we need the mortality rates for heart attacks and accidental deaths in 1977. These rates are adjusted for age.

1977 mortality rates

0.004137 Heart Attack
0.000488 Accident
0.000092 Homicide
0.003094 Official weighted rate: 5 heart attacks, 2 accidents
0.001826 Speculative weighted rate: 4 homicides, 3 heart attacks

For mortality rate R, the probability of n deaths in a group of N witnesses over T years is
P = POISSON(n, T*N*R, false)

Assume that N=20 FBI were called to testify.
Scenario I: 5 heart attacks, 2 accidents.
P= 5.23E-15= POISSON(7, .5*20*.003094, false)
Probability: 1 in 190 trillion

Scenario II: 3 heart attacks, 4 homicides.
Probability: 1 in 7000 trillion

Scenario III: 7 homicides.
Probability: 1 in 9 trillion trillion

To illustrate just how impossible the base case scenario is, let’s assume that 100 FBI were called.
The probability is 3.6E-10 or 1 in 2.7 billion.

Probability Sensitivity Analysis

All 7 heart 5 heart/ 3 heart/
FBI attacks 2 accid. 4 murders 7 murders
08. 6.63E-17 8.72E-18 2.18E-19 1.81E-28
20. 3.95E-14 5.23E-15 1.32E-16 1.11E-25
30. 6.61E-13 8.79E-14 2.23E-15 1.89E-24
100 2.61E-09 3.61E-10 9.56E-12 8.61E-21

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Posted by Richard Charnin on October 1, 2013 in JFK

Tags: conspiracy facts, conspiracy theories, Executive Action, HSCA, JFK, JFK assassination, JFK conspiracy proved mathematically, jfk witness deaths, poisson distribution, probability analysis, Warren Commission

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